2022


TOP 6 DATES TO PICK

1. May 11
2. May 2
3. April 23
4. April 27
5. April 28
6. April 21


TOP 6 DATES TO AVOID

1. April 20
2. MAY 3
3. May 1
4. April 20
5. April 26
6. April 18


COUCH POTATO TECHNIQUES

The easiest technique to choose an ice-out date is to open a calendar to April/May and throw a dart. However, if you want to improve your chances of winning you might review the ice-out facts and throw a dart at a smaller number of dates. Or you can review the same ice-out data and look at the dates to pick/avoid (shown above) and choose a date based on the theory that the actual ice-out percentages will, over time, match the normal (Bell) curve. This is happening with each passing year but it's certainly not foolproof for any given year, although the above dates improve your chances over the dart technique.

The ice-out data follows the Bell curve. However, there have been fewer early and late ice-outs which mean that the variance has decreased over the years. This results in a narrow shaped Bell curve. It means that the ice-outs are happening close to the average which is April 29. Occasionally the ice does go out early or late but the trend is towards a narrow not wider Bell curve. The current standard deviation is around 9 days earlier or later than the average of April 29th.

ICE CHATTER

One recurring question is asked. Have the ice out dates been influenced by ‘climate changes? If you look at the Ice-Out Fact sheet you see that the last four decades have had earlier ice outs than the previous three but the earlier two decades had early ice out dates too. So while there is a trend that supports the impact of climate change it is not conclusive. There are other variables at play. First, the accuracy of determining the ice out date has improved over the years. I have discussed this in previous years. Next, is the variance or standard deviation of ice out date. While the standard deviation has lessened over the years it is still high, around +/- 9 days. This may mask any impact of climate change on the ice out date. While we have data on the temperatures and snow amounts we do not have data on the wind which may impact the ice out date by 1-3 days. So bottom line: we just do not have sufficient data to say that there is a correlation between the ice out date and any influence climate change may have. We would need several early April ice out dates to even consider that climate change is impacting Lake V ice outs. But stay tuned, that data may be coming.

Good luck with your ice out estimates. The best and worst dates have been redone to a different model so I hope the accuracy is improved.


© Iceman - January 2022